Anti-vaccination: what in the data are we talking about?

Anti-vaccination propaganda is testing our immunity against harmful misinformation. The scientific method for evaluating vaccine safety is losing credibility to more socialized minority opinion. And this anti-vaccination dilemma is a petri dish for exploring how we respond to the different ways data is communicated to the public.

Vaccine safety is a hot topic in The New York Times, and two recent articles dig into the data of vaccine safety. The first, “By the Numbers: Vaccines Are Safe” summaries key findings (and data) in a bulleted list such as the following:

Billions of doses of vaccines have been given to Americans in the 30 years of the injury program’s existence. During that time, about 21,000 people filed claims. Of 18,000 claims that have been evaluated so far, roughly two-thirds have been dismissed because the program determined that the evidence showed vaccines were not at fault.

The second, “Vaccine Injury Claims Are Few and Far Between,” is a much longer piece that includes the following chart:

The chart incorporates bullet-style annotations excerpted from the article, such as “After an exhaustive review, federal courts ruled in 2010 that vaccines do not cause autism.” And the chart adheres to good principles of design, such as consistent increments on both axis, that are often overlooked or manipulated by less attentive publications.

The chart does an excellent job of narration…there is a timeline with story points and measurements. Charts are great for reading and research, but difficult or awkward to produce if you’re in an heated debate at the local pub with someone spouting “facts” from questionable sources.

Bullet points tell a different story and the narrative walks us down a numeric path of size and scope. We start with a reminder that “billions” of doses of vaccines have been administered over 30 years and arrive at 18,000 evaluated claims, the majority of which (two-thirds) have been dismissed by the judicial system.

Bullet points work well at the local pub. You can accent each one with a stern poke in the general direction of your less informed drinking pal. The inevitable problem with the bullet point approach is that nuance is often lost. The judicial process involved in dismissing claims that vaccines cause autism is just one example. Your new friend is likely to counter that institutions are all simply puppets of Big Pharma before making reference to a lesser-known doctor who has “proven” the case exhaustively…on YouTube.

I do not know whether the overuse of charts or bullet points have diminished our capacity for dialog. I do suspect that the surplus of quick “facts” and scarcity of attention has eroded patience for the long tale…rational arguments built by weighing different and opposing facts in an inviting narrative best shared with friends over beer or coffee and in the spirit of good company.