Tag Archives: featured

Welcome to Hack The Future! This is where theory meets practice. We introduce a case study of an urgent problem (or question) facing our society, and include publicly available data. For the next 60 days, our readers have the opportunity to propose a solution and make a recommendation based on their objective and thoughtful analysis of the situation. Solutions will be peer reviewed and posted on Your Life in Data for all to enjoy. Students are encouraged to participate!

Our case study this Spring is the question of whether the small town of Holliston, MA should approve the development of a massive warehouse and distribution facility. Although the tenant has not been named, based on the size of the facility many town members suspect that it is one of many warehouses being developed by Amazon across the US.

The project is commonly referred to by its address: 555 Hopping Brook. Local opposition has created a helpful Website to follow the project’s progress in Town Hall, including links to many of the studies submitted by the developer, CRG. Some examples include:

The benefits to Holliston are outlined in the note from the Holliston EDC, and include $1 million dollars of increased tax revenue. As a smaller town of approximately 14,000 residents, Holliston struggles to attract commercial development to support basic town infrastructure. However, the town is very concerned about the impacts of a large project on local resources and the environment.

For this case study, you are an advisor to the Town Selectmen recruited to answer the following questions:

What is the actual return to Holliston from this project, if not the one million dollars annually estimated by the Economic Development Committee? Have all costs (environmental and financial) been considered and fairly estimated based on your extraordinary analytical skill and deep research?
What arguments should be used to inform the public of whether you approve or disapprove of the project ? Of all the data, what is most convincing and how should it be presented to the public in a manner that protects objectivity (and re-election prospects for the Selectmen) while telling a story?
Based on your answer to #1, and your understanding of the key measures for evaluating this project, are there guidelines that you recommend to help Holliston find (and approve) projects in the future?

In your answers to the questions above, please state where more data would be necessary or helpful to complete your analysis. Reasonable assumptions are very welcome. Sources must be exhaustively cited and attributed for inclusion in your response. Good data visualization is highly recommended…and might even be featured in The Wicked Viz!

Holliston is counting on you! And your research will help thousands of other small towns suddenly faced with the sprawling growth of our online economy. Good luck!

Impact On Society

Don’t Panic? What To Do When Amazon(?) Comes To Town

April 20, 2021 Jesse Weissman

One of my favorite books, The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, begins with a slightly hungover Arthur Dent waking up to the sound of a bulldozer warming to demolish his home in order to make way for a new hi-way. With little warning and few alternatives, Arthur takes the most reasonable course of action. He lies down in the mud in front of the bulldozer.

Holliston, MA is a relatively small town (est. pop 14,000) West of Boston that just awoke to the arrival of a massive (800,000 sqft) warehouse development project. Something odd happened last summer, when the trees at 555 Hopping Brook Rd were unceremoniously cut down with little explanation and no forewarning. Earlier this year, the intensions of CRG development became clear.

The industrial-zoned property is being groomed for a massive warehouse and distribution center. And while the eventual tenant is not currently known, The New York Times recently featured an article about Amazon’s expansion into small towns across America.

In response to the 555 Hopping Brook project, the residents of Holliston (and neighboring towns) organized a history of the project including the proposed impact studies submitted to the town for review. Some of the questions raised by residents include:

What happens to home values and corresponding residential property tax revenue when a 800,000 square foot warehouse and an additional 474,500 total annual trips (1,300 average daily trips x 365 days) of tractor-trailers and other vehicles are added to our town?
What is the expected cost of the road repairs from the additional 474,500 total annual trips of tractor-trailers and other vehicles?
Do we have the adequate emergency services (fire and police) to support this development? If not, what is the cost of additional support?
After all costs have been considered, what is the true economic impact of this project?

To date, the developer has offered to make minor improvements to a town road, such as adding additional signals and signage. The key financial benefit to Holliston is a proposed ~$1 million in additional tax revenue, about 1.2% of the total tax revenues currently received in 2019.

Town residents are now faced with a mix of anticipated risks (traffic, noise) and possible rewards ($1 million for town projects). And the decision on whether to move forward or not is a popular topic in the local Facebook Group:

If it’s not very explicitly laid out and guaranteed how tax revenues and town finances will be impacted, I see no reason to not fully expect more of the same run around..I believe the safe bet is having this facility will make it much LESS likely to be able to support the town infrastructure.

I would like to see a point where this town replaces its 52 year old high school and its dilapidated water system, without having to hear excuses about how we can’t pay for it..The developers are going to walk away, we’ll smugly claim some kind of victory, and we’ll have another two decades of indecision about how to pay for things.
Source: Holliston Residents posts on Facebook

One of the larger questions raised is whether a small, local government can even organize a response to a project of this size. With multiple committees and little precedent to follow, some members wonder who ultimately has the authority to approve or disapprove the project.

I spent several years as a Selectman, State Representative, and Chairman of the Zoning Board of Appeals. Since those days laws have changed, authority has shifted, and I have no idea where the power to approve or end this assault upon the town lies.
Source: Holliston Resident post on Facebook

As a Holliston resident, I feel a bit like Arthur Dent on that fateful morning when forces from beyond came to demolish his home. And as one who lives happily in analytical strategy for many waking hours of the day, the situation feels all to familiar: we have a bunch of imperfect metrics to describe an existential problem about which the general public has already baked an opinion. Oh…and it’s not really clear who’s going to make the final call or if there is even budget to find an answer.

Now we’re getting somewhere.

To-date, Holliston has focused on (and publicized) a number of cost drivers including increased traffic, noise, and burden on emergency infrastructure. Less attention has been given to other environmental factors such as air pollution or water management that directly impact residential health and wellbeing over longer periods of time.

When data is difficult to assemble, creating comparisons becomes even more challenging. Will the warehouse project feel like a power plant? A new mall? What are the measures that should be used to evaluate different development options? Unfortunately, many smaller towns view development with a scarcity mentality…this may be the only shot at a bright new future.

The central question is whether $1 million will exceed the additional costs created by the warehouse project, and by how much. How did the developer arrive at $1 million in the first place? While we know this amount is about 1.2% of the town’s budget, what is the expected value of goods that will pass through the warehouse? What is the geographic value of Holliston relative to other potential site? These are much more difficult questions to answer.

Stress on a system is also a learning opportunity. The Holliston project has forced a number of difficult questions, and Holliston is still reacting to a development proposal. Can small towns muster enough analytical horsepower to proactively define a range of beneficial opportunities using more than anecdotal evidence?

Holliston is one of potentially hundreds of towns that will be impacted by warehouse expansion. For this reason, and because of the range of data available, the 555 Hopping Brook development is our Hack The Future project this Spring. Take a look at the data, explore, and submit your thoughts on what the town of Holliston should do.

Survival Skills

Refresh Your Mind: Getting Started in Data Strategy

April 19, 2021 Jesse Weissman

Spring is in the air and these podcasts, readings, videos and tips will breathe new life into your arsenal of survival skills. We’ve hand-picked our top 5 geared for anyone starting in Data Strategy, or looking for a gentle refresher.

Top Podcast

If you listen to one Podcast about COVID vaccine hesitation, listen to this ~8 min episode of More or Less by the BBC. In “Deciding When to Suspend a Vaccine,” Tim Harford explores why we often misjudge risk by confusing coincidence with causality, and the dilemma regulators face balancing public health with pure science.

Chart Your Voyage: How Pirates Lead Digital Transformations

April 17, 2021 Jesse Weissman

One year ago we explored the question of when it was time to live the pirate life. Today, we are going to explore ways to chart your first pirate voyage. You’ve convinced your executive team that change, in this case a “digital transformation,” will bring tremendous value. What was once a pirate project has burst into the mainstream with companies projected to spend billions (trillions?) of dollars on transformative projects over the next few years.

So what is a pirate to do when the seas are awash with investment? When the corporate armada is suddenly on-board yet somehow rudderless and adrift? When you’ve been given a compass, spyglass, and every hope and prayer that you will navigate the fleet to Transformation Island unscathed and under-budget?

The exciting news is that your pirate instincts are exactly what is needed to navigate these unchartered waters. Digital transformations have new twists and turns depending on the organization. Fortunately, smart consultants follow the scent of any reusable idea (a.k.a. treasure) floating in the breeze and “Digital Transformation” is a pungent example. As a result, the resourceful pirate has many safe harbors of research freely available to help chart a path into unfamiliar waters.

Do The Reading

Pirates read…a lot. Without direct orders from the Royal Navy and propelled by burning curiosity, pirates continually need to chart new paths and learn new skills to navigate uncertainty. Here is a list of seven go-to articles to fuel your strategic thinking before drawing a dotted line to the oversized “X that marks-the-spot” for your digital transformation.

McKinsey & Co.

These articles provide the best introduction to different frameworks Data Strategists can use to frame complexity. Start with “Ten Red Flags..” and pay special attention to how data initiatives are organized by impact and feasibility. The venn diagram illustrating both the multitude and intersection of analytical roles is very versatile. I’ve used it as a wake-up call for overly ambitious executives, and as a way of highlighting gaps in an organization. Lastly, make note of the diagram illustrating the centralized vs. decentralized organizational structure. It’s especially helpful when paired with the articles from HBR listed next.

The Harvard Business Review

“What’s Your Data Strategy” begins with a true and sobering statement: “CDOs’ tenures are often difficult and short.” This article introduces two potential data strategies, offensive and defensive, based on the intended use of an organization’s data. While I find the article a bit too (delightfully) abstract to put into immediate practice, the framework is an invaluable tool to negotiate the responsibilities shared between the business and IT. The second article is an urgent reminder of the specific skills critical to data success, and a helpful guide to the crew you will need to recruit.

Harvard Data Science Review

The Harvard Data Science Review is a new publication that belongs in the bookmark list of any and every data professional (pirate). “How to Define and Execute Your Data and AI Strategy” integrates many of the principles outlined in the lists above from McKinsey and HBR, with the additional benefit of a practitioner’s detailed perspective. This is especially evident in the Operating Model section of the article which introduces an almost Agile view of the data and business functions in an organization.

How to Define and Execute Your Data and AI Strategy. [Kruhse-Lehtonen, U., & Hofmann, D. (2020)]

Sketch a Map

To be fair, at some point you will start feeling seasick from reading about data strategy and digital transformation. And it’s at this point when the seasoned pirate recognizes that it’s time to take action and put pen to paper. Sketching a map includes balancing risk vs. reward, and building consensus. A clear map to treasure is not enough. The people you engage provide the wind that powers your sails and the rudder that keeps you on course.

Balancing risk vs. reward begins by marking treasure with a big letter “X” wherever you think it may be found. That’s easy and unfortunately many companies (and doomed pirates) stop there. Building consensus is about sharing the map of possible treasure sites, and inviting your colleagues and crew to weigh in on both the risks and the rewards. Worthy topics for our next article. Until then just remember: good pirates do the reading. Now get started!

The Wicked Viz

Tracking The Mutations of COVID Data Visualization

April 16, 2021 Jesse Weissman

Over the past year, our response to COVID has been influenced by a series of data visualizations that have evolved and mutated faster than the virus itself. March and April of 2020 saw a brief explosion of efforts to both understand and explain the emerging pandemic.

In mid-March of 2020, Information Is Beautiful published a COVID Infographic that went beyond infection and mortality rates. In an easy-to-read format, the Infographic began to answer our most pressing questions. What’s my relative risk if I go grocery shopping or attend a neighbor’s BBQ? How safe is it to get a haircut?

By early April 2020 we lived in a state of data model mania. When will the virus go away? Where is the pandemic rampant? Should I be concerned? Can our powers of computing and mathematics shed any light on this unprecedented terror? The Financial Times published an attempt to predict the future, predictably reflecting little more than our state of panic and the active dialog between mathematicians, scientists and the public at-large.

The media was quickly flooded by parabolic curves and lines of all shapes and sizes. Leading publications, such as The New York Times, began to clean up the statistical and visual clutter. The real problem became evident immediately. We really had no idea what to expect in the near future. In this chart, a handful of predictive models from well known institutions are clearly labeled, and standard measures like a 7 day average begin to emerge. But as this example illustrates, beyond a sense that mortality would decline in a few months none of our leading institutions could really agree on what was going to happen next (or when).

In the Spring of 2020 the reality of COVID began to settle in and communities around the world began to enforce restrictions or outright lockdowns. Visualizations of COVID in the media shifted from predictive to descriptive. And in the examples below from The New York Times, tabular data of accepted measures (Daily average in the last 7 days) begin to use standards for comparison and sparklines. Cases are expressed per hundred (or thousand) members of a population. Color coding is used to create urgency, and express a relative safety by community. A similar technique can be seen in Warming Stripes, a very effective visualization of climate change.

Today, the COVID pandemic is an extension of our daily weather report. You can look up the severity in your local community over morning coffee. Forecasting has taken a back seat. Focus is now on the rise of vaccination. Information is Beautiful updates its Infographic with data such as vaccine rates by country and mask effectiveness. And the media have largely standardized visualizations of COVID in a line chart or histogram like the example below from the New York Times.

With multiple factors influencing vaccination rates, such as supply, vaccine hesitation, and distribution ability, we face a new round of complexity and uncertainty. When will I receive a vaccine? Why is there such an uneven distribution of vaccine? And in response Journalists are experimenting with new visualizations. In this example, no less than seven different data points illustrate the relative difficulty (or level of concern) in obtaining a COVID vaccine.

A year ago, on my way home from my last visit to the gym, I stopped by our local CVS and noticed older customers wearing latex gloves while handling vitamin bottles. I shivered momentarily at the checkout touchpad and asked the clerk to take my card and approve my purchase. Some virus was in our midst…somewhere.

Today I drive to my supermarket, don a mask, and do a six-foot dance around the other customers hunting for arugula and bananas. I splash disinfectant on my hands like aftershave once the groceries are loaded in the back of my car. I can almost count the weeks until my vaccination.

COVID is still in our backyard. But we know where it lurks and how to stay healthy due in part to the effective visualization of reliable data, governed by the time-tested principles of sound Journalism.

Your Life In Data